Russia Forming Rival to Nato

Meanwhile, we're cutting defense spending by 25%.

A new Russian security strategy includes an intense rivalry with Washington, the possible use of military force as the nation competes for energy resources in the Middle East, Barents Sea, the Arctic, Caspian Sea and Central Asia, and the assembly of a coalition that it hopes will rival NATO, according to a report in Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin.

While Russia intends to develop relations with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it will only do so if the alliance takes into account Russia's "legitimate interests in its military-political planning."

But because of Moscow's continuing concern over NATO's eastward migration into regions such as the Caucasus and Central Asia – regions which it regards as being in its sphere of influence – Russia will bolster a collective security arrangement with post-Soviet countries.

Russian Warship Sinks Chinese Freighter

I know it's wishful thinking, but...FIGHT!!!

From Strategy Page:

The Russian Coast Guard sank a Chinese coastal freighter, the New Star, on February 15th, after the ship left the Russian Pacific port of Nakhodka without permission. The New Star arrived in Nakhodka nearly three weeks ago, with a cargo of rice. But the firm that purchased the rice complained that the cargo was of low quality, and demanded a lower price. The Russian buyer went to local officials, and got the government to forbid the New Star from leaving until the matter was settled. Caught in the middle of this dispute between the Chinese rice broker and the Russian buyer, the Hong Kong owner of the New Star ordered the captain to leave port anyway.

When the Russian Coast Guard was notified, they sent a patrol ship out to bring the New Star back. The Russian patrol boat caught up with the New Star, about 80 kilometers from Nakhodka, and ordered the Chinese ship to return to port. The Chinese ship refused, and eventually the Russians opened fire with a 30mm auto-cannon. After several hours, 515 30mm shells were fired into the hull of the New Star, causing it to take on water and begin to sink. While getting off the New Star, eight of the crew died when one of the two life rafts flipped over in rough seas. The other eight members of the crew were picked up by a Russian Coast Guard ship.

This is reported like it's an everyday occurrence. The Russian Military is settling minor trade disputes? I would say that's a bit of a trade imbalance.

Russians Want to Return to Afghanistan

The communists want back in Afghanistan. This just after the Russians engineered the closure of a key US air base. I'm sure Obama is all ears.

President Dmitry Medvedev said Wednesday that Russia and its ex-Soviet allies want to help the United States stabilize Afghanistan, saying Moscow wanted "full-fledged" cooperation with Washington.

He spoke a day after the ex-Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan announced it would evict the U.S. from an air base key to the Afghan war. Kyrgyzstan made the move after getting a promise for $2 billion in loans from Russia — which resents the American presence in a region Moscow regards as part of its traditional sphere of influence.

The possibility of the base closure poses a serious challenge to the new U.S. administration and President Barack Obama's plan to send up to 30,000 more American forces into Afghanistan this year.

"Russia and other (alliance members) are ready for full-fledged comprehensive cooperation with the United States and other coalition members in fighting terrorism in the region. This fight must be comprehensive and include both military and political components. Only in the case will this have a chance to succeed," Medvedev said.

How the Russians Deal with Environmental Nutjobs

Actually, I don't think I need to add anything to this.

Despite Obama Being President, There are Still a Few Differences Between America and Russia - Sulley's Vodka Drinking Cousin

Contrast this story with Sully's heroic landing in the Hudson.

When passengers on Aeroflot Flight 315 heard the pilot make his preflight announcement, they knew something was amiss. The pilot's voice was garbled, barely intelligible — and that was in his native Russian. When he switched to English, it was impossible to understand him at all.

"The first thought that occurred to me was, 'This guy is drunk,'" said Khatuna Kobiashvili, a passenger on the Moscow-New York flight. "His speech was so slurred it was hard to tell what language he was speaking."

As passengers, including a Moscow Times reporter, related their concerns to the flight crew, they were told to "stop making trouble" or get off the Boeing 767 jet. A passenger who called Aeroflot's head office received a similar rebuff.

"They told me that it was impossible for a pilot to be drunk and hung up the phone," said the passenger, Tatyana Vorontsova.

After a chaotic hour during which passengers pleaded with flight attendants, crew and several Aeroflot representatives who boarded the plane, unexpected help came from socialite and TV host Ksenia Sobchak, who was also on the plane, and all four pilots were replaced.

The Dec. 28 incident is a black mark against an airline that has worked hard to distance itself from its Soviet past and assuage passenger fears after a jet operated by Aeroflot-Nord crashed last September, killing all 88 people on board. Pilot error has been blamed for the crash, and a report said Monday that tests had found alcohol in the pilot's blood. (Story, Page 2.)

Aeroflot spokeswoman Irina Dannenberg refused to comment for this article, telling a reporter to "read about it on the Internet."

Immediately after the incident, Dannenberg told Komsomolskaya Pravda that the pilots were removed from the plane because of "mass psychosis" among the passengers. In the same interview, Dannenberg said Aeroflot would sue Sobchak if the costs of delaying the flight were "very large."

The airline's official statement was that the pilot may have suffered a stroke. Yet the crew does nothing?

Russia Will Be a Troublemaker in 2009

Russia has no intention of letting Obama prance around in his little hopey changey fantasy world.

The world enters 2009 with Russia in play in a way it hasn't seen in decades. The relevant comparison isn't 1998, when the Russians engaged in default and devaluation but remained within the bounds of their existing political and economic system (as Lenin said, two steps forward, one step back). The history to consider is 1989--as key aspects of the Russian system could change for the worse.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin certainly isn't a risk taker. The carefully managed "transition" to President Dmitry Medvedev and the extension of presidential terms to six years underscore that Putin prefers to leave as little as possible to chance. That's more ominously obvious in the recent tightening of laws on treason.

With oil prices well below what the Russians can afford, but Putin's (& Medvedev's) popularity still high, the initial moves have been to consolidate power. Yet despite no organized political opposition to speak of, we're still starting to see social unrest. For the first time in years, there have been widespread demonstrations in Russia--in 30 cities, following the imposition of import duties on used cars. We're likely to see much more turbulence in 2009, as factories providing employment for entire cities are shuttered. That's a sort of suffering that Russians are certainly used to, but only in the context of a very different kind of political system.

Where could this go? There will be near-zero state tolerance for dissent. And the strongest level of anti-Americanism (and, in many quarters, of broader xenophobia) of any significant emerging market in the world, creates the potential to make security a serious concern--and possibly lead to unrest that disrupts supply chains. The Obama administration is unlikely to quietly tolerate a crackdown, and will put plenty of focus on human rights and democracy. So American and some European nations' relations with Russia will continue to deteriorate over the course of 2009 (with the Germans, who are more dependent on the Russians economically and, to some extent, politically, playing the role of wild card).

I don't expect such serious risks on the foreign-policy side. Russia has achieved its principal objectives in Georgia, at least for now, and we'll see less direct conflict over NATO enlargement and missile defense as the west takes a breath and reassesses both issues. Nor will we see Russian tanks in Ukraine. The Russians are too connected into the Ukrainian economy and have too much to lose (though Russian minorities in Ukraine--a majority in Crimea--could see some violence and make headlines. More on that later.) Nevertheless, Russia will be a troublemaker in international relations--if a more unpredictable and opportunistic one than in 2008. As the latest gas cutoff to Ukraine shows, the Kremlin puts realpolitik and national interests first. "market discipline" in the aftermath of Georgia did not prevent Moscow from again turning off the tap to Ukraine, and more instances of bare-knuckles foreign policy are likely in 2009.

The Russians seem to be off and running in 2009:

Russia has decided to establish naval bases in Libya, Syria and Yemen within a few years, a military official said Friday, in a sign of Moscow's growing foreign policy ambitions.

"It is difficult to say how much time it will take to create the bases for our fleet in these countries, but within a few years this will be done without question," the unidentified military official told Itar-Tass.

"The political decision on this question has been taken," the official said.

A Navy spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.

Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the General Staff, said it was too early to name any foreign ports that could host Russian bases.

"There are negotiations conducted with foreign governments. Such publications [on bases] may have a negative effect on the way of these talks," Nogovitsyn said, Itar-Tass reported.

Analysts have said the Syrian port of Tartus could be revived as a Russian naval base. During the Cold War, the Soviet Navy had a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, using Tartus as a supply point.

National media have reported that opening a naval base in the Libyan port of Benghazi was among the main issues discussed during Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's visit to Moscow in October last year.

Medvedev Takes a Swipe at Putin

He better not drop the soap around Putin.

Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian president, on Sunday took another apparent swipe at Vladimir Putin, rebuking the prime minister’s government for moving too slowly to alleviate the country’s economic crisis.

Mr Medvedev said only 30 per cent of the government’s anti-crisis programme drafted last October had been fulfilled.

“We have to acknowledge that at the present moment planned measures are being fulfilled more slowly than expected and, most important, more slowly than the current situation demands,” Mr Medvedev said at a meeting at the Salyut engine plant outside Moscow.

Most Russians had believed Mr Medvedev would play second fiddle to Mr Putin, who named him as his chosen successor ahead of presidential elections last year.

Although several attempts by Mr Medvedev to pursue independent policies have been thwarted, Kremlin watchers have noted a new assertiveness in the president of late.

In comments last month that were seen as a signal to Mr Putin, the president said: “The final responsibility for what happens in the country and for the important decisions taken would rest on my shoulders alone and I would not be able to share this responsibility with anyone.”

EU Issues Ultimatum to Russia Over Gas Supply Cuts

Wake up folks. We're so far past Republicans vs. Democrats.

The EU gave Russia 24 hours to restore gas supplies last night after all deliveries to Ukraine were halted in a dispute over unpaid bills.

As 17 European countries reported cuts to supplies, the leaders of both Russia and Ukraine were warned to stop treating Europe's gas supply as a 'hostage'.

Significantly, the EU failed to spell out what action it planned to take if its warning was ignored.

As millions of people struggled to cope in sub-zero temperatures, it has emerged that gas prices could soar in Britain if there is not a swift resolution to the crisis.

Moscow pulled the plug on three major pipelines after a pricing dispute with Ukraine.
Supplies have dwindled throughout this week and today Austria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic confirmed their pipelines were empty.

Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia and Turkey are already out of gas.

Italy suffered a 90 per cent plunge, France was down 70 per cent and Germany was affected for the first time. Britain, however, is unlikely to run out of gas as only two per cent of supplies come from Russia which can be replaced from other sources if necessary.

The cutoff has also showed the first signs of hitting the European economy as the Hungarian unit of the Japanese automaker Suzuki said it was halting production because of restrictions on industrial users of gas.

Russia Has a 50/50 Chance of Serious Turmoil

Interesting article on Russia's economy and its future:

Uncertainty is creeping up on Russia. For the first time since Vladimir Putin's rise to power, Moscow confronts the prospect of real political instability. One of Russia's savviest politicians, Anatoly Chubais, said last month that the likelihood of serious turmoil -- economic, social and even political -- is 50 percent.

The current crisis is global, and there is no sure way to forecast its length or depth. Such uncertainty would be disturbing in any country but is especially alarming here. For years, Putin steadily eliminated all political threats to his power, and by the end of his second term as president he enjoyed absolute authority. Now that authority is being challenged by forces beyond his control.

Putin was blessed with rising energy prices that enabled him to build his oil-greased authoritarianism. He delivered generously to the nation, and the people readily withdrew from politics and rewarded him with high approval ratings. Likewise, the Russian elite stayed loyal, since the abundant oil revenue produced lucrative opportunities and comfortable lifestyles. In this environment, any remaining political opponents were easy to marginalize; only in very rare cases did Putin resort to repression.

The price of oil is now about a quarter of what it was only a few months ago, and economic problems are building within Russia. Investors are gone; the stock market barely exists. After nine years of surpluses, Russia will have a budget deficit in 2009, and the solid economic growth of recent years may give way to a contraction. An increasing number of enterprises are shifting to two- or three-day workweeks, sending their employees on unpaid vacations or laying them off. Unemployment, which had been very low in recent years, is rising, and the country lacks an adequate social infrastructure to help those who are losing their jobs. The situation is especially grave in the numerous company towns where new jobs are almost impossible to find. Meanwhile, geographic mobility is strongly limited by Russia's underdeveloped housing market.

Read the rest of the article.

Russia Tries to Freeze Ukrainians to Death -- Cuts Gas Supplies in the Dead of Winter

Petro thug Vladimir Putin is not playing games.

Russian gas monopoly Gazprom said it cut all gas supplies to Ukraine on Thursday morning after talks broke down over payments for past shipments and a price for 2009.

Gazprom spokesman Igor Volobuyev said the cuts began as planned at 10 a.m. (2 a.m. ET) Thursday.

There are fears that a cutoff could lead to a repetition of a January 2006 gas crisis. Then, a similar dispute between Russia and Ukraine briefly interrupted gas shipments to many European countries. Ukraine controls the pipelines through which Russia supplies most of its customers in Europe.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine against diverting gas intended for other customers, saying that could have "quite serious consequences for the transit country itself" by damaging relations with Europe.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has angered the Kremlin through his efforts to build ties to Western Europe and his support of Georgia in its August war with Russia.

Ukraine's position in the dispute is further complicated by divisions in the country's leadership. Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, bitter political rivals, are at odds over gas policy and relations with Russia, among other issues.

Russians Bracing for Hard Times

Seems like only months ago they were oh so cocky as they ridiculed the American economy. Turns out, it's the same ol' crappy Russia. But let me say, I don't think this is a good development for mankind. Russia is becoming increasingly desperate. And they are going to do something drastic soon.

There are many oft-quoted indicators of Russia's suffering economy — the nation's international reserves have fallen by more than 25 percent since August; the major stock indices recently plummeted by 70 percent; and the ruble has been sliding — it's now selling at exchange houses for about 30 to the dollar, compared with 23.5 five months ago.

Beyond those figures and the analysis of financial experts, however, on the streets of Moscow — a city that has known much tumult during the past century — there is for many Russians a deep sense of fear, a feeling of being underneath a gathering, dark wave of hard economic times.

Only last spring, downtown Moscow was a place where Russia's nouveau riche walked out the door of boutiques with fists full of bags from Hermes, Cartier and Gucci. In a city with more billionaires than any other in the world, Bentleys and BMWs idled outside the shops with drivers waiting to put the bags in the trunk and zip to the next shop.

That was before the war with Georgia in August, which kicked off an exodus of foreign capital; the global financial crunch, which dried up lines of credit used by heavily leveraged Russian businessmen; and, finally, the crash of oil prices that had underwritten much of the boom.

Crude-oil futures ended the year at $43 a barrel — a long way down from their record-shattering price of $147 in July.

"The stability based on oil wealth proved an illusion," observed a guest columnist in Tuesday's edition of Vedomosti, a business journal. The writer, the head of an influential polling center, reported that 61 percent of those interviewed in September said things were going in the right direction in Russia, a figure that dropped to 43 percent in December.

Russian Life (Part 1)

It's in Russian, but you you really don't need to speak Russian to appreciate this video.

Beheadings Show Russian Neo-Nazis are Borrowing the Tactics of Al Qaeda

The crap is really hitting the fan in Russia. The developments in Russia should serve as a warning to Americans. Don't ever think you're above finding a scapegoat. And don't ever think that a American totalitarian state isn't possible. Some might say we're already on our way.

Russian neo-Nazi gangs are becoming increasingly radicalised as they borrow tactics from Islamic extremists.

According to human rights organisation Sova, recent gang behaviour points at efforts to try to incite a ‘holy racial war’.

The beheading of two migrant workers within the last 18 months bear the chilling hallmarks of al Qaeda influences.

Last year two migrant workers were kidnapped and murdered by a gang of Russian neo-Nazis. The group filmed themselves beheading one of the men with a butcher knife while he was still alive. The other is forced to kneel in a freshly dug grave and is shot in the head. Both killings were posted on the internet and the footage ends with balaclava-clad men giving Nazi salutes. According to Sova, there have been more than 80 racist murders in Russia this year alone.

Violence towards migrants is becoming worse as ethnic minorities flee the poverty of their homelands and flock to Russia. Sky News quoted Sova director Alexander Verkhovsky as saying: ‘Too many people in the 1990s had to look for some universal explanation instead of Communist ideology, and ethnic nationalism was a good universal explanation.

Here is a video report:

Russia to Make Dissent Treason

We could look at Russians with sympathy, but frankly, we're on the fast track to doing this in America.

Under Soviet dictator Josef Stalin, people who fraternized with foreigners or criticized the Kremlin were "enemies of the people" and sent to the gulag. Now there's new legislation backed by Vladimir Putin's government that human rights activists say could throw Russia back to the days of the Great Terror.

The legislation, outspoken government critic and rights activist Lev Ponomaryov charged Wednesday, creates "a base for a totalitarian state."

Government supporters and Kremlin-allied lawmakers said the bill — submitted to the Kremlin-friendly parliament last week — will tighten up current law. Supporters say prosecutors often have trouble gaining convictions because of ambiguities in the definition of state treason.

The bill would add non-governmental organizations based anywhere in the world that have an office in Russia to the list of banned recipients of state secrets. The government has repeatedly accused foreign spy agencies of using NGOs as a cover to foment dissent.

Critics warned the loose wording will give authorities ample leeway to prosecute those who cooperate with international rights groups.

Some of Russia's most prominent right activists, including Moscow Helsinki Group head Lyudmila Alexeyeva and Civic Assistance director Svetlana Gannushkina, said the bill in fact gives authorities the power to prosecute anyone deemed to have "harmed the security of the Russian Federation."

It is "legislation in the spirit of Stalin and Hitler," the activists said in a joint statement — legislation that "returns the Russian justice to the times of 1920-1950s."

Russian Nationalism Surging

Russia is seeing a worrying rise in ultra-nationalism, murder and violence against it's migrant workers.



And coupled with this rise in nationalism is the stifling of democracy. See this report from Euronews.

Russia May Join OPEC

This would be a development of very dangerous proportions. Meanwhile, Obama ponders the establishment of a musiciancorps and refuses to push for offshore drilling. Do you feel safe?

President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia may join the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and reduce production to support the oil price.

“We have to defend ourselves,” Medvedev said in the Ural Mountains city of Kurgan today. “This is our revenue base, both from oil and from gas,” he said. “I believe that we mustn’t rule out any options.”

Defensive measures may include “cutting the volume of oil production and participating in existing organizations of suppliers, and in new organizations, if we can reach such an agreement,” Medvedev said in comments broadcast on state television.

A cut in global production of 2.5 million barrels a day would support oil prices in a range of $60 to $80 a barrel, said Fedun, who has advocated Russian cooperation with OPEC.

More on this development from the Tehran Times.

RUSSIA REJECTS CHARGES THAT NUKES ARE MISSING

This can't be good for anybody:

Russia's Foreign Ministry is rejecting U.S. allegations that some Russian nuclear weapons are unaccounted for.

The ministry says in a Friday statement that allegations made by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates are no more than "insinuations." It insists that no nuclear weapons have disappeared from Russian arsenals.

The ministry says all nuclear weapons in Russia have been under reliable protection since the 1991 Soviet collapse despite the nation's economic turmoil.

Gates spoke earlier this week at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.

He expressed worries about what he called the "tens of thousands of old nuclear mines, nuclear artillery shells and so on," left over from the old Soviet arsenal.