Russia Will Be a Troublemaker in 2009

Russia has no intention of letting Obama prance around in his little hopey changey fantasy world.

The world enters 2009 with Russia in play in a way it hasn't seen in decades. The relevant comparison isn't 1998, when the Russians engaged in default and devaluation but remained within the bounds of their existing political and economic system (as Lenin said, two steps forward, one step back). The history to consider is 1989--as key aspects of the Russian system could change for the worse.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin certainly isn't a risk taker. The carefully managed "transition" to President Dmitry Medvedev and the extension of presidential terms to six years underscore that Putin prefers to leave as little as possible to chance. That's more ominously obvious in the recent tightening of laws on treason.

With oil prices well below what the Russians can afford, but Putin's (& Medvedev's) popularity still high, the initial moves have been to consolidate power. Yet despite no organized political opposition to speak of, we're still starting to see social unrest. For the first time in years, there have been widespread demonstrations in Russia--in 30 cities, following the imposition of import duties on used cars. We're likely to see much more turbulence in 2009, as factories providing employment for entire cities are shuttered. That's a sort of suffering that Russians are certainly used to, but only in the context of a very different kind of political system.

Where could this go? There will be near-zero state tolerance for dissent. And the strongest level of anti-Americanism (and, in many quarters, of broader xenophobia) of any significant emerging market in the world, creates the potential to make security a serious concern--and possibly lead to unrest that disrupts supply chains. The Obama administration is unlikely to quietly tolerate a crackdown, and will put plenty of focus on human rights and democracy. So American and some European nations' relations with Russia will continue to deteriorate over the course of 2009 (with the Germans, who are more dependent on the Russians economically and, to some extent, politically, playing the role of wild card).

I don't expect such serious risks on the foreign-policy side. Russia has achieved its principal objectives in Georgia, at least for now, and we'll see less direct conflict over NATO enlargement and missile defense as the west takes a breath and reassesses both issues. Nor will we see Russian tanks in Ukraine. The Russians are too connected into the Ukrainian economy and have too much to lose (though Russian minorities in Ukraine--a majority in Crimea--could see some violence and make headlines. More on that later.) Nevertheless, Russia will be a troublemaker in international relations--if a more unpredictable and opportunistic one than in 2008. As the latest gas cutoff to Ukraine shows, the Kremlin puts realpolitik and national interests first. "market discipline" in the aftermath of Georgia did not prevent Moscow from again turning off the tap to Ukraine, and more instances of bare-knuckles foreign policy are likely in 2009.

The Russians seem to be off and running in 2009:

Russia has decided to establish naval bases in Libya, Syria and Yemen within a few years, a military official said Friday, in a sign of Moscow's growing foreign policy ambitions.

"It is difficult to say how much time it will take to create the bases for our fleet in these countries, but within a few years this will be done without question," the unidentified military official told Itar-Tass.

"The political decision on this question has been taken," the official said.

A Navy spokesman could not immediately be reached for comment.

Colonel-General Anatoly Nogovitsyn, deputy chief of the General Staff, said it was too early to name any foreign ports that could host Russian bases.

"There are negotiations conducted with foreign governments. Such publications [on bases] may have a negative effect on the way of these talks," Nogovitsyn said, Itar-Tass reported.

Analysts have said the Syrian port of Tartus could be revived as a Russian naval base. During the Cold War, the Soviet Navy had a permanent presence in the Mediterranean, using Tartus as a supply point.

National media have reported that opening a naval base in the Libyan port of Benghazi was among the main issues discussed during Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's visit to Moscow in October last year.